The Prediction Arc

[video] Quants stopped trading on gut feeling a long time ago everyone talks about neural nets and transformers, but prediction markets still run on simulations. let me break it down so it clicks the first time here's their toolkit - and yes, the code is attached /// Probability

[image] Good morning kittens. As you remember, recently I advertised the project Prob_Trade (scam team). We had advertising obligations and this was not hidden, under the post there was a note “paid partnership”. I will not now describe everything in full detail, you can see the full

[video] Tonight we will see the fight between two UFC legends Charles Oliveira vs Max Holloway. And in anticipation of this fight I decided to prepare and study this sport completely. How do you like my technique, and who do you think will win tonight?

[image] I used to watch CFOs lock in a "base case" and defend the budget. Today that model is outdated before it even gets reviewed. It's not that analysts got worse, the world just stopped moving in straight lines. Tariffs nobody expected. Elections that rewrite regulation overnight.

[image] Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer Weekend, which means tonight is UFC night. And we have a very interesting fight with good odds. Adesanya vs Pyfer, a UFC legend against a strong knockout puncher, this fight caught my attention immediately when I saw that Adesanya is only a slight

[image] Prediction Markets as a Macro Tool Most portfolio managers still think of prediction markets as entertainment for crypto-native audiences, and I get that skepticism. But over the past year I've started treating them differently - not as a news aggregator, but as one data layer

[text] Cats and kittens, I read an interesting article about the risks of copy trading and its advantages. I spent a long time figuring this out, and it’s actually very difficult to find a good trader whose trades you would want to copy. Many traders enter trades where they take 1-2%

[image] Kittens, yesterday was another win added to the collection, by the way I checked my Polymarket statistics yesterday and it turns out I am in the top ten thousand traders this month, but more on that in a later post. Those who placed bets with me yesterday, congratulations, today

[image] Hello kittens, I’ve got some interesting news for you. Polymarket has just integrated Pyth Pro as a data source for a completely new category of markets: gold, oil, ETFs, TSLA, NVDA and others. Everything is settled based on a single price point, updated every second. Real money

[image] Just dressed my succubus in full Polymarket merch and she looks amazing 😈 Cap, hoodie, tee, the whole set, she’s officially the coolest and most stylish in the Polymarket team. Thanks Polymarket for the best gift ever!

[image] Kittens, you asked and I’m finally showing you what I’ve been testing. The platform is called FORS Markets, and honestly one post is not enough to explain everything inside it. - FORS is not just another analytics dashboard or simple aggregator. It’s built as the ultimate super